Can Pats Break Jags' Home Stranglehold?
Football Betting Lines
12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Patriots will become the latest team to try to solve the mystery of Alltel Stadium on Sunday, when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game rife with postseason implications.
The Jaguars, who are tied with the similarly 8-6 Bengals, Broncos, and Jets in a quest for two AFC Wild Card slots, have gone a dominant 6-1 at home in 2006, compared to 2-5 away from Alltel. Each of those six wins have come against teams that enter Week 16 in the playoff chase, including thrashings of the Jets (41-0), Colts (44-17), and Giants (26-10), as well as a takedown of probable NFC East champ Dallas (24-17).
In seven home games, the Jaguars have surrendered an average of 9.1 points per game. On the road, the clip swells to 21.6 per outing. Last week saw a continuation of typical Jacksonville form, as Jack Del Rio's team went to Tennessee and allowed three defensive touchdowns in a 24-17 loss to the resurgent Titans.
There is evidence to suggest that New England will present more of a challenge to the Jaguars than have most of their visitors, however.
The 10-4 Patriots, who can wrap up their fourth consecutive AFC East title with a win or a Jets loss in Week 16, are 5-1 away from Gillette Stadium this season, with their 21-0 loss to Miami two weeks ago snapping a seven-game regular season road winning streak. New England also has some positive history at Alltel, having defeated the Eagles there in Super Bowl XXXIX less than two years ago. In addition, Bill Belichick's club comes off a 40-7 throttling of the Houston Texans, the very same Texans that dealt Jacksonville a pair of setbacks earlier this season.
Sunday's game will mark a rematch of an AFC First-Round Playoff game held in Foxboro last Jan. 7, a game won by the Patriots, 28-3.
SERIES HISTORY
New England is 3-0 against Jacksonville in regular season games all-time, including a 27-13 win when the teams last met, in Foxboro in 2003. The Patriots' only regular season appearance in Jacksonville occurred in 1997, when they prevailed, 26-20.
The teams have also met three times in the playoffs, with New England holding a 2-1 edge there. The Patriots were 28-3 winners in the aforementioned AFC First-Round Playoff last year; New England scored a 20-6 home victory in the 1996 AFC Championship; and the Jaguars earned their only meaningful win against the Patriots in their history with a 25-10 home win in a 1998 AFC First-Round Playoff.
Belichick is 2-2 against the Jaguars, with both losses dating back to the 1995 season, when he served as head coach in Cleveland. Jacksonville's Del Rio is 0-2 against both Belichick and the Patriots in his career as a head coach.
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. JAGUARS DEFENSE
After a dismal performance in a shutout loss to Miami the week before, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (3055 passing yards, 20 TD, 12 INT) was his old efficient self against the Texans last week. The signal-caller completed 16- of-23 passes for 109 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no turnovers, posting a passer rating of better than 100 for the fourth time this year. Brady's touchdown passes went to Kevin Faulk (115 rushing yards, 41 receptions, 3 TD), who scored from 43 yards out to stake the Patriots to a 17-0 first-quarter lead, and ex-Texan Jabar Gaffney (7 receptions, 1 TD) near the end of the first half. Also contributing were wide receiver Reche Caldwell (53 receptions, 3 TD), who had a game-high six catches totaling just 25 yards, and tight end David Thomas (6 receptions), who hauled in three passes for 24 yards in the most productive game of his rookie season to date. Thomas was subbing for the injured Ben Watson (49 receptions, 3 TD), the New England leader in receiving yards (643), who is listed as questionable again with a knee problem for this week. The New England line is allowing a little under two sacks a game, and surrendered just one against Houston last Sunday.
Brady might want to steer clear of the side of the field occupied by Jacksonville cornerback Rashean Mathis (53 tackles, 7 INT), who was this week named to his first career Pro Bowl. Mathis' seven picks on the year are just one off the NFL lead. The secondary is rounded out by Brian Williams (46 tackles, 1 INT) at the other corner, and Deon Grant (50 tackles, 2 INT) and Gerald Sensabaugh (36 tackles, 2 INT) at the safeties. A pass rush that ranks middle-of-the-NFL-pack with 31 sacks on the year is led by end Bobby McCray (29 tackles, 9 sacks). McCray had five tackles to go along with his team- leading ninth sack of the year last week. The Jaguars are seventh in the league against the pass (186.5 yards per game) as they head into Week 16.
In light of the presence of Jacksonville's formidable front-seven, the fact that New England running back Laurence Maroney (624 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 5 TD) appears set to return to the field is an encouraging development for the visitors. The rookie sensation has missed the last two games with knee and rib problems, and continues to be listed as questionable on the injury report, though he was practicing by mid-week. In Maroney's absence, veterans Corey Dillon (715 rushing yards, 10 TD, 13 receptions) and Faulk were handling a bulk of the workload in the backfield. Dillon carried 20 times for 61 yards against the Texans last Sunday, also adding five catches for 20 yards out of the backfield, while the multi-dimensional Faulk totaled 68 yards and two touchdowns on just six total touches. Fullback Heath Evans (103 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 1 TD) also logged an impact in the blowout, carrying a season-high eight times for 24 yards. The Patriots are 13th in NFL rushing offense (120.1 yards per game) as Week 16 begins.
The Jaguars have re-established their reputation as a run-stopping team in recent weeks, as now-healthy defensive tackle Marcus Stroud (17 tackles, 2.5 sacks) has led the unit's climb to third in NFL rushing defense (83.8 yards per game) over the past month. Stroud and fellow interior lineman John Henderson (45 tackles, 3.5 sacks) were at the heart of a group that held the Titans' Travis Henry to 37 yards on 12 carries last Sunday, combining for five tackles and half-a-sack on the afternoon. The young linebacking corps has played well in recent weeks, with rookie Clint Ingram (60 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) pacing the Jags in tackles with seven last Sunday, and Daryl Smith (80 tackles, 2 sacks) notching a trio of stops from his place in the middle. Three New England running backs combined for 97 yards on 24 carries in last year's playoff game with Jacksonville.
JAGUARS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
A Jaguars running game that ranks second in the NFL (163.1 yards per game) behind only that of the Atlanta Falcons could be somewhat depleted this week. Veteran Fred Taylor (1120 rushing yards, 5 TD, 22 receptions) is listed as questionable with a nagging hamstring injury that he aggravated in last Sunday's loss to the Titans, meaning the six-time 1,000-yard rusher could miss his first game of 2006. Luckily, the Jaguars have a star-quality backup in Rookie of the Year candidate Maurice Jones-Drew (764 rushing yards, 36 receptions, 13 TD), who has rushed for 264 yards in his last two games and has a touchdown in six straight contests. The UCLA product carried a season-high 25 times for 98 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss to the Titans. If Taylor can't go, either LaBrandon Toefield or second-year man Alvin Pearman (89 rushing yards, 1 TD) would likely spell Jones-Drew. Toefield carried six times for 25 yards last week, in what was just his third appearance of the season. Pearman had a career-high 13 totes for 71 yards and a touchdown against Indianapolis the previous week.
Whoever does the running for Jacksonville won't have it especially easy, as they will be facing a New England team that is ranked No. 4 in the league against the run (87.7 yards per game). Maintaining that standing could be somewhat difficult for the Patriots, however, with space-eating nose tackle Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack) regarded as questionable with an ankle injury. Michael Wright (19 tackles, 1 sack) is set to make his second straight start in Wilfork's place, with Richard Seymour (35 tackles, 4 sacks) and Ty Warren (74 tackles, 6.5 sacks) holding down their usual end spots in the 3-4. Wright had four tackles and a sack versus Houston, while the perennial Pro Bowler Seymour logged his first interception since 2002. Inside linebackers Mike Vrabel (83 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT) and Tedy Bruschi (101 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) continue to make a generous amount of tackles behind the three- man front.
If the Jaguars wish to score their ninth win of the season this week, they will require a much stronger effort than the one they received from quarterback David Garrard (1400 passing yards, 8 TD, 8 INT) last week. Garrard committed four turnovers (three INT, one fumble), three of which were returned the other way for Tennessee touchdowns, overshadowing the quarterback's 22- of-37, 233-yard passing performance. Garrard, who carries a mediocre 77.1 passer rating into Sunday's game, is now 5-3 as a starter this year. The Jaguars haven't had much in the way of consistent targets this season, but wideouts Reggie Williams (44 receptions, 4 TD) and Matt Jones (32 receptions, 3 TD) have both had their moments. Williams logged four catches for 88 yards last week, while Jones caught Garrard's only touchdown pass of the day in the fourth quarter. Tight ends Marcedes Lewis (11 receptions, 1 TD) and George Wrighster (35 receptions, 3 TD) combined for eight receptions in the defeat. The Jacksonville offensive line has been renowned for its run-blocking abilities this year, but has struggled at times to protect the quarterback. The Titans sacked Garrard five times last Sunday.
Though they've faced the likes of Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, and Brett Favre already this season, the Patriots find themselves entering the second- to-last week of 2006 having surrendered the fewest touchdown passes in the league (9). Much of the credit for that standing goes to a secondary led by cornerbacks Asante Samuel (59 tackles, 8 INT) and Ellis Hobbs (37 tackles, 2 INT), both of whom had a major impact in last week's win over Houston. Samuel notched his team-leading eighth interception of the year against the Texans, a figure that is also tied for the NFL lead along with Denver's Champ Bailey. Hobbs also had a pick, and followed up the Texans' only touchdown of the day with a 93-yard kickoff return in the third quarter. In other good news for the secondary, strong safety Rodney Harrison (44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) has a chance to play on Sunday after missing six games with a broken scapula. Harrison is listed as questionable. The Patriots' 38 sacks rank eighth in the league, with outside linebackers Roosevelt Colvin (48 tackles, 7.5 sack) and Tully Banta-Cain (35 tackles, 5.5 sacks) ranking at the heart of the pass- rushing effort. Banta-Cain had two sacks of David Carr last Sunday.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
There are a couple of certainties going into this game. One is that the Jaguars, apart from a fluky slip-up against the Texans, have been dominant on their home field. The other is that this game is a great deal more important for Jacksonville, which likely needs to win out, than it is for New England, which could claim the AFC East title without winning another game. Talent- wise, these teams match up evenly. But give the edge in the areas of both desire and emotion to the Jaguars, who are the only participant in this contest that are fighting for their playoff lives.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 27, Patriots 19
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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