Indy holds slim lead going into fourth quarter
Football Betting Lines
02/07/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joseph Addai's four-yard touchdown run in the third quarter has helped the Colts grab a tenuous 17-16 lead over New Orleans heading into the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIV.
Drew Brees has lit a fire for the Saints with a spectacular performance over the last two quarters, but he'll need to lead the team to at least one more score if New Orleans is to celebrate its first-ever Super Bowl victory.
Garrett Hartley has kicked three field goals - all over 40 yards - for the Saints. New Orleans' lone touchdown came on a 16-yard pass from Brees to Pierre Thomas.
Meanwhile, Peyton Manning has been steady under center for the Colts as he tries to engineer his team to a second title in four years.
Trailing, 10-6, the Saints used a gutsy approach to start the second half, trying on onside kick. The ball glanced off Indianapolis' Hank Baskett, and after a scrum at the bottom of the pile, New Orleans' Jonathan Casillas came away with the football.
It was the first onside kick in the Super Bowl coming before the fourth quarter, and the move paid off. Brees moved the Saints into the lead at 13-10 on a 16-yard touchdown pass to Thomas with 11:41 left in the third. Brees completed all five of his passes on the drive for 51 yards, the last one being a screen on the right side of the field. Thomas evaded defenders, stepped out of a tackle in the middle of the field before diving into the end zone.
Indianapolis went back on top, 17-13, with 6:15 left in the quarter thanks to Addai's four-yard TD run. Manning hit Dallas Clark with an 11-yard gain up the middle to convert a 3rd-and-5. On the next play, Addai powered up the middle, spun out of a tackle and scored standing up to end the 10-play, 76-yard drive. He accounted for 24 yards in the march.
Brees then moved the Saints from their own 34 to the Indy 29, but the drive stalled when Jeremy Shockey couldn't break loose for a first down after a four-yard catch over the middle. Hartley was called on and split the uprights from 47 yards out with 2:01 remaining.
Hartley became the first kicker to have at least three field goals made of 40- plus yards in the same Super Bowl game.
The Colts were deep in their territory when the quarter came to a close.
A Manning touchdown pass capped a 96-yard drive in the opening quarter and then the Colts had a goal-line stand to stop the Saints in the final two minutes of the half.
Matt Stover kicked a 38-yard field goal midway through the first quarter, and Manning ended the Super Bowl's record-tying longest drive with a 19-yard scoring toss to Pierre Garcon with 36 seconds remaining in the same period.
The Saints, in the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, got a 46-yard field goal from Hartley in the early moments of the second quarter, but were thwarted on a fourth down run from the one with 1:49 left. Hartley split the uprights from 44 yards on the final play of the second quarter.
Through three quarters, Brees has connected on 25-of-32 passes for 244 yards, while Manning is 17-of-24 for 162 yards. Addai has 10 rushes for 79 yards.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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