Win Over Ravens Would Keep Hope Alive for Steelers
Football Betting Lines
12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You thought last year was something, huh?
Well, should the Pittsburgh Steelers climb out of their hanging-on-by-a- thread-of-a-thread-of-a-thread abyss and actually get themselves into the playoffs with even a chance to defend their Super Bowl title from last February, consider it a worthy encore.
Coach Bill Cowher's team needs a litany of positive outcomes - ranging from losses by the Cincinnati Bengals to the capture of Osama Bin Laden - to fully erase the stain left by an inglorious 2-6 start to their post-title, post- Jerome Bettis fairy tale season.
Five wins in six games have followed since the schedule's midway point, however, with the only loss of the last half-dozen coming to this week's opponents - the Baltimore Ravens - in a punishing 27-0 whitewash on Nov. 26 at M&T Bank Stadium.
The Ravens have already guaranteed themselves a spot in the postseason, having clinched the AFC's North Division title in the midst of a successful run that's yielded seven wins in eight games since the toppling of former offensive coordinator Jim Fassel.
Head coach Brian Billick took over the play-calling duties after sacking his former Super Bowl coaching opponent, and the Ravens have responded by scoring at least 20 points in all but one game since the change was made.
Baltimore did suffer something of a scare in its Week 15 toppling of North bottom-feeder Cleveland, losing quarterback Steve McNair for the afternoon when he had a hand stepped on by Browns linebacker Andra Davis in the first quarter.
McNair was replaced by former starter Kyle Boller, who completed 13-of-21 passes for 238 yards, two touchdowns, an interception and a 104.0 QB rating in his first extended on-field action since Week 6 against Carolina.
McNair will return this week, however, and was not listed on Wednesday's injury report.
The Ravens, though third in the chase entering the weekend - trailing San Diego (12-2) and Indianapolis (11-3) - nonetheless maintain a shot at securing home-field advantage throughout their stay in the AFC playoffs.
Baltimore holds a tiebreaker advantage over the Chargers by virtue of their Week 4 victory in early October, though they would need to establish a clear advantage over the Colts, who hold an edge over the Ravens with a superior record against common foes.
"We're still in the battle to get home-field and let the playoffs go through Baltimore," linebacker Bart Scott said. "Hopefully we can keep chugging along because we know it's a huge advantage and something we're fighting for. By no means do we shut it down here."
SERIES HISTORY
The Steelers hold a 13-8 edge in the all-time regular season series with the Ravens, but as mentioned, were routed, 27-0, when the teams met in Baltimore in Week 12. The teams split last year's home-and-home, including a 20-19 Pittsburgh win when the teams met for a Monday Night showdown in the Steel City in Week 8. The home team has won the last eight installments of the series since Pittsburgh prevailed in Baltimore during the 2002 campaign. The Ravens are 0-4 in regular season games played in Pittsburgh since last winning there in 2001.
Pittsburgh won the only postseason meeting between the teams, a 27-10 triumph in a 2001 AFC Divisional Playoff at home.
Pittsburgh head coach Bill Cowher is 14-8 against Baltimore all-time (including postseason), while the Ravens' Brian Billick is 7-9 overall against both Cowher and Pittsburgh.
RAVENS OFFENSE VS. STEELERS DEFENSE
The Ravens are surely a defense-first, offense-second team, but that's not to say there's a dearth of weaponry at Billick's disposal.
McNair has been exactly the leader the team coveted when it snatched him away from Tennessee during the off-season, and the former Alcorn State collegiate wizard has responded with a solid 82.3 QB rating and 62.4 percent completion rate.
He's 9-4 in his career as a starter against the Steelers, and has thrown multiple TD passes in three of his last five meetings with them. The veteran needs 281 pass yards to join Fran Tarkenton and Steve Young as the lone NFLers with 30,000 through the air and 3,500 on the ground.
Running back Jamal Lewis has returned to his workhorse form, grinding out 986 yards in 270 carries and scoring eight touchdowns. Predictably, Baltimore is 18-3 when he runs at least 25 times in a game.
Elsewhere, the tandem of Mark Clayton (805) and Derrick Mason (710) can become the first Ravens pair since 1997 to reach 800 receiving yards apiece in a single season. And tight end Todd Heap (team-high 64 receptions) has three TD catches in four road games against division foes.
Mason and Heap were listed as questionable on Wednesday's injury report, and both were held out of practice.
Overall, the Ravens are 23rd in the NFL with 101.6 rushing yards per game, and 12th with 211.6 yards through the air. The total offense count of 313.3 yards per game is good for 19th in the league.
The Steelers defense has been particularly stingy in the recent recovery toward "on the bubble" status, allowing just 13 points in victories over Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Carolina since the loss to the Ravens. Previously, Pittsburgh had been gashed for at least 20 points in seven of eight games - going 3-5.
Rankings-wise, the Steelers are fifth overall against the run (90.4 yards per game), 15th against the pass (206.1 yards) and ninth overall (296.5 yards).
Outspoken linebacker Joey Porter leads the unit with seven sacks, and elite- level safety Troy Polamalu is first in interceptions with three. Polamalu is listed as questionable due to the lingering impacts of a knee injury, but practiced Wednesday.
Rookie safety Anthony Smith has interceptions in consecutive games.
STEELERS OFFENSE VS. RAVENS DEFENSE
This is where the numbers contrast between the teams is most likely to play out.
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 3,077 yards in injury-abbreviated duty, nonetheless good for third in the AFC. New primary running back Willie Parker is also third in the conference with his 1,331 yards, and is tied for third in the AFC with 11 touchdowns.
And overall, the Steelers' clip of 356.6 yards per game is also, you guessed it, third in the AFC.
But then there's the Ravens' defense.
Baltimore's turnover ratio is a league-best plus-15 overall and its limiting of foes to just 265.8 yards each week is also tops in the NFL.
On the perimeter, big names are plentiful on both sides.
For the Steelers, wide receiver Hines Ward has at least five catches in six of nine games against the Ravens and leads Pittsburgh with 61 receptions for the season.
He needs 125 receiving yards to become the second player in franchise history (John Stallworth) with 8,000 for a career.
On the other side, Trevor Pryce leads the Ravens with 12 sacks, deep man Chris McAlister has a team-best five interceptions, and Pro Bowl linebacker Adalius Thomas has at least one sack in five of his last six road games.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Admittedly, there's not a lot to separate here.
Both teams have something left to play for - Pittsburgh for its very 2006 football life and a chance to defend its title, Baltimore for the chance at hosting a series of playoff games alongside the chilly Inner Harbor in January.
Both teams are chock full of high-profile players in the midst of successful seasons - Pittsburgh had four players (two offense, two defense) selected to the AFC's Pro Bowl roster, Baltimore had five (one offense, four defense).
Both teams are hot - Pittsburgh has won five of six, Baltimore has taken seven of eight.
And both teams have the requisite division-rival dislike for one another.
So, when all else fails, take the home (and certainly more desperate) team.
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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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