Baseball Betting

Panthers and Huskies square off in Big East showdown

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/13/2010 - Hartford, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers invade the XL Center this evening for a top-25 Big East showdown with the 15th-ranked Connecticut Huskies.

The Panthers are on a bit of a run right now and enter this contest with a six-game win streak in tow. Jamie Dixon's squad has been flawless in league play thus far, including back-to-back huge road wins at Syracuse (82-72) and Cincinnati (74-71) since the start of the new year.

Jim Calhoun's Huskies are simply treading water in the Big East thus far, splitting their four league tilts. The team opened conference play with a road loss at Cincinnati, but followed with a pair of home wins against Notre Dame and Seton Hall. However, the road was once again unkind to UConn this past weekend, when the team dropped a 72-69 decision at Georgetown.

The Huskies hold a 30-26 advantage in the all-time series with the Panthers, although Pittsburgh has closed the gap a bit with three wins in the last four meetings.

Not much has changed with the Panthers this season, as the team still relies on hard-nosed defense to set up everything else. Pittsburgh has certainly thrived in that area this season, limiting the opposition to a mere 58.0 ppg and just .381 shooting. In addition, Pitt is outrebounding foes by as a solid 7.3 caroms per outing. Offensively, the team has a trio of double-figure performers, led by Ashton Gibbs. A deadly three-point shooter (.409), Gibbs is putting up 17.5 ppg. Brad Wanamaker follows with 12.2 ppg and the addition of Gilbert Brown (10.0 ppg in four games this year) to the lineup will only aid this team in the second half of the season. Brown scored 13 of his career-high 17 points in the second half, as Pittsburgh earned a huge road win at Cincinnati. Gibbs led all scorers in the game with 19 points, while Jermaine Dixon tallied 10. Pitt shot a solid .490 from the game and outscored the Bearcats 20-8 at the free-throw line.

The Huskies let one slip away at Georgetown over the weekend, as they blew a 15-point halftime lead to lose by three points. Stanley Robinson led four Huskies in double figures with 16 points. Jerome Dyson chipped in with 12, while Alex Oriakhi and Jamal Coombs-McDaniel added 11 points apiece. Oriakhi completed a double-double with 10 rebounds, but15 UConn turnovers led to 18 points for the hometown Hoyas. UConn is by no means an offensive juggernaut, averaging a rather modest 74.3 ppg. Still, the team does possess two of the more explosive players in the Big East in Dyson and Robinson. Dyson can do it all and currently leads the team in scoring at 19.3 ppg, while also showing his ability as a rebounder (5.3 rpg) and distributor (81 assists). Robinson adds 17.1 ppg and ranks second on the team with 7.7 rpg. Kemba Walker (12.7 ppg, team-high 92 assists) aids in the backcourt, while Gavin Edwards (10.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, team-high 43 blocks) is a strong presence in the paint.


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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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